Welcome to Global Warming - The focus of society on climate change has become so intense it seems no headline is absent a nod to the human caused global warming paradigm.  A firehose of sensational claims deluge us swinging wildly from topic to topic.  But beyond the catchy headlines, underlying key concepts are inconsistent.  If one takes an interest and dives in for a deeper look, the supporting science often lacks widespread study.  Models, rather than observation, are usually at the heart of these theories and they are commonly deficient in terms of skeptical peer review and replication study.  New mechanisms are constantly being added to the pantheon of climate drivers.  Yet strangely, no matter what the focus is for new findings, two themes seem omnipresent.  The direction things are headed is bad, and human behaviors are the dominant factor.

    With these ferociously churning waves of new theories, our eyes are constantly darting in the direction of the latest headlines rarely returning to evaluate how accurate they turned out to be.  It is challenging to find an organized critical overview of the debates within the climate science genre.  Hopefully, this page will be useful in tracking some of these developments with a focus on new climate findings in addition to following up to see how prior predictions are holding up.  Many sources are linked from this page.  An army of citizen scientists and journalists critically examine global climate modeling concepts and predictions.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool almost everybody every day for decades?  Shame on almost everybody.

[Last Update: April 24th, 2023.  Last Overhaul: May 31st, 2021]

CO2
(the most terrible, no-good, very bad compound there is . . .)

     CO2 caused global warming is the centerpiece of warming predictions.  CO2 emission reduction schemes have grown into the most global environmental initiative ever undertaken by human kind.  The cost of these reduction programs is staggering and the resulting increasing cost of energy, particularly for developing nations, is a serious concern.  So this matters and is making a growing difference in the lives of real people.  Some argue that the restrictions 3rd world governments are cajoled into by 1st world governments are a death sentence for their most impoverished.  1st world countries are not immune to negative effects from these schemes as well.  Trends toward self preservation have begun to surface and have thrown a bit of a wrench into the carbon tax's works on the global, national, and state/province level.

• Study Shows Ethanol Produces Worse 'Global Warming' Pollution Than Gasoline - by Katie Pavlich / Townhall 21APR14.  While the "environmental" reasoning for Ethanol was nonsense, it is worth noting that the strategic reasoning was and still is brilliant.  The purpose being to artificially over-produce corn in case something happens like a yellowstone caldera that wipes out a big chunk of US production capacity for a long time.  It sure will be nice to have some backup agro if something major does happen.
• The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels - by Alex Epstein 13NOV14.
• Longest UN climate talks end with no deal on carbon markets - by Frank Jordans and Aritz Parra / Associated Press 15DEC19.
• American Media Won't Report One Key Detail About The French Riots: They're About 'Climate Change' Policies - by Emily Zanotti / Daily Wire 03DEC18.
• Paris Disagreement: States in the US can't agree either:  States Split on Climate, So U.S. to Miss Emissions Target - by Alex Brown / Stateline 16DEC19.
• Fed's carbon tax fight with Alberta goes to appeal - by Bob Weber / National Observer 16DEC19.
• U.N. Climate Projects Swamped with Fraud, Corruption Allegations - by Simon Kent / Breitbart 02DEC20.
• Study: Africa’s Green Energy Transition “Unlikely” - by Eric Worrall / WUWT 12JAN21.

. . . . .  . LET .  .  ME  .  .   IN   . . . . . .

Climate Control from:
Growing Skepticism: Already 150 New (2017) Scientific
Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm
 - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone

     The foundation of the human induced global warming hypothesis is that CO2 released into the atmosphere absorbs heat, and as a result, the more CO2 present in the atmosphere, the more heating.  Even in this basic premise, there is contention among experts.  While the thermal properties of the CO2 molecule are well defined, the addition of calculations that multiply this effect are included in climate models.  These calculations are called positive feedbacks.  This aspect of the models has been called into question. Empirical evidence for positive feedback - by John Cook / Skeptical Science 30NOV07.  Nothing is settled about this part of the science.

     The importance of counteracting negative feedbacks is also significant.  A fundamental example of a negative feedback would be Earth's albedo where a warmer earth with more cloud cover produced by evaporation and vegatation would reflect more mid-latitude light back into space cooling the planet.

     Other functions within climate modeling of CO2 have problematic levels of uncertainty.  CO2 absorbs light energy in specific wavelengths (2.7µM, 4.3µM and 15µM).  There is a finite amount of these colors of light coming from the sun into the atmosphere.  The more CO2 present in the atmosphere, the more of these wavelengths are absorbed.  So the amount of absorption per CO2 molecule decreases the more of them there are.  In other words, the more CO2 added in the atmosphere, the less light in these wavelengths is left over, until finally a threshold is crossed where no additional light in these wavelengths remains.  At this point, no matter how much CO2 is added, no new heat will be absorbed.  An aspect with considerable uncertainty, is where precisely our current CO2 levels fall on the logarithmic progression of the heating capacity of the total atmospheric CO2 in the system.  CO2 climate sensitivity values since 2000 are steadily trending lower working downward to match observation.  When the pollution above China dissipated during the Covid-19 Pandemic shut downs, it got warmer, not colder.  This was due to a decrease in aerosol driven cooling and despite an even greater drop of CO2 levels.  This same pattern has been seen all over the world, dealing a mighty contrary blow to the conventional wisdom that CO2 is king.

• 100+ Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone Living Doc.
• CO2 Absorption Spectrum by Gary Novak / NOV79 Living Doc.
• Intro To Atmospheric Chemistry - by Daniel J. Jacob / Princeton University Press,1999. Chapter 7 Primer on the simplification and assumption framework.
• Lindzen and Choi Part II - by Judith Curry 10JUN11.
• New paper from Lindzen and Choi implies that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 16AUG11.
• Interpretation of the post 2000 temperature standstill - by Nicola Scafetta et al. / IJHT 01SEP17.
• Recent CO2 Climate Sensitivity Estimates Continue Trending Towards Zero - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone 16OCT17.
• Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models - by B. Ayarzagüena et al. / JGR Atmospheres 28FEB20.
• The Saturation of the Infrared Absorption by Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere - by Dieter Schildknecht / Bielefeld 27MAR20.
• Fast Climate Responses to Aerosol Emission Reductions During the COVID‐19 Pandemic - by Yang Yang et al. / AGU 17SEP20.

     Another problem in these models is their failure to incorporate fluctuations in the sun's output.  The notion that our climate has nothing to do with variations in what we get from the sun seems unlikely given that the sun's energy is the most critical element in the equation.  Use of a "solar constant" has been a key feature of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) modeling.  The solar constant was based on measurements in a limited ultraviolet range showing very little change in the Sun's stellar spectra output, undergoing just a 0.1% change over the 11 year Solar Cycle.  This limited UV variability in spectral irradiation has been called into question, but even if UV has been relatively constant, the arbitrary use of only UV is causing the models to ignore the most variable parts of the spectrum such as X-ray Radiation which experiences changes as drastic as 100,000x.  In addition to missing most of the light spectrum, they have ignored:

• Electromagnetic fields (IMF) and particles.
• Solar wind with up to 100x variability.
• Protons/electrons & cosmic rays with up to 1000x variability.
• Ionosphere/GEC current which hasn't enough measurements yet to even ascribe likely variability.

    All have been shown to play a major role affecting Earth's atmospheric conditions, and all of these behaviors are modulated by the Sun.  Advances in our ability to examine the interaction between the earth and sun have shown that short term spikes from X-ray and Gamma ray producing events like solar flares and CMEs may have profound long term climate effects.  There is also an avalanche of new science demonstrating solar forcing mechanisms involving our magnetosphere.  Hundreds of papers are rolling in a year showing correlations between our Sun's behavior and climate/weather patterns, including long range weather forecasting based on solar forcing to compare against other models.  (Solar Climate Forcing, Minima, and Ice Ages - Article overview.)

    Despite the uncertainties amidst the core premise of the hypothesis, complex models have been promoted by the IPCC attempting to encompass all of the variables affecting climate.  These models predict how global climate will behave in the future.  Let's have a look at some models to determine if their predictions came true.

[IPCC Synthesis report 2014, p 43]*

     The models here are dramatically overestimating the rate of equatorial tropospheric warming.  This is among the most critical elements in climate modeling, and is fortunately an area where we have reliable data to perform a reality check.  As two climate scientists, Richard McNider and John Christy, aptly stated,

“We might forgive these modelers if their forecasts had not been so consistently and spectacularly wrong. From the beginning of climate modeling in the 1980s, these forecasts have, on average, always overstated the degree to which the Earth is warming compared with what we see in the real climate.” - In the Wall Street Journal, scientists condemn “spectacularly wrong” climate forecasting - by Steven T. Cornellussen / Physics Today 26FEB14.

     With this vast divergence of the predictions from the observations, a review of the failed hypothesis is dictated.  Something must be driving all of the models to over-estimate in favor of a warming trend.  What does this mean?  Perhaps it means it is hubris to believe humanity's knowledge and acumen have advanced to a such a lofty state that we understand all of the intricate mechanisms driving overall climate well enough to make reliable predictions.  Sadly, these models also fail backwards too, in a sense that reverse runs fail to predict the past.

• Failed Prognostications of Climate Alarm - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 07AUG18.
• Future Directions for Whole Atmosphere Modelling - by David R. Jackson et al 30AUG19.
• High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate - by Jiang Zhu et al. / Nature 30APR20.
• Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum - by Jiang Zhu et al. / AGU 12JAN21.
   

Is More CO2 In The Air Bad?

     The moral claim is that CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a bad thing because it causes global warming and numerous harmful secondary affects.  Let's imagine that despite the failed predictions, a CO2-centric warming hypothesis is correct.  Will runaway global warming eventually turn the Earth into a broiling caldron like Venus?  In order to investigate this question, let's take a look at how CO2 concentrations even greater than the present effect the climate.  But this time not using a model.  Let's use the earth itself.

*Geological Timescale Concentration of CO2 and Temperature Fluctuations
From "CO2 Does Not Drive Glacial Cycles".
by Anthony Watts / WUWT 21FEB09.

     In this long term graph of global CO2 (the blue line), it is apparent that CO2 has been at vastly higher levels in the past than it is now.  And yet, despite this, there was no runaway global warming.  Life thrived in these high concentration CO2 environments.  CO2 levels are anemically low now, and plants reflect this in their morphology which is why farmers introduce CO2 to green houses in order for the plants to flourish as their kind once did.  The reality is that plants around the world have been starved for CO2 ever since the Carboniferous period of the Paleozoic when vast quantities of carbon was sequestered in coal beds.  When CO2 again declined throughout the Tertiary, plants were adversely affected.  During the time humans have been around, we've seen only the very lowest concentrations of CO2 ever to have existed in Earth's atmosphere.

     Recent CO2 increases have affected the green-ness of the planet.  Satellite data gathered by NASA over 35 years has shown a "persistent and widespread increase" in the growing season of plants and the amount of green upon the surface of the earth.  If you're on "Team Green", this is something you might want to think about.  CO2 injection into the atmosphere might be the most beneficial thing we could be doing for the well being of all living things on the planet.  If the natural CO2 decreases that have led us to where we are now continued, and if humans ceased returning sequestered CO2 back into the atmosphere, we might end up starving.

• Carboniferous period (wiki)
• Speculations on carbon dioxide starvation, Late Tertiary evolution of stomatal regulation and floristic modernization (Robinson).
• Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
• NASA demonstration (YT)
• A Dearth of Carbon? - by Dr. Patrick Moore / Vancouver Sun (YT) 24MAR18.
• German Study Shows Added CO2 Has Led To 14% More Vegetation Over Past 100 Years! - by P Gosselin / No Tricks Zone 07MAY21.

     One possibility is that CO2 drives global temperature in the manner proscribed by the alarmists.  But the whole thing might work the other way around with temperature driving CO2 levels sustained in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide And The Ocean: Temperature Is Driving CO2, And Not Vice Versa - by P. Gosselin / No Tricks Zone 08OCT13).  Or both temperature rise and CO2 atmospheric concentrations might be driven and/or regulated by a combination of other things entirely:

• Solar Climate Forcing - Solar v Anthropogenic Causes of Global Warming - by Dr. Nir Shaviv / George Marshall Institute (YT) 21MAR13.
• Oceanic Regulation - The Ocean: Climate Control - by American Museum Of Natural History 16AUG09.
• Volcanic Eruptions - Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections . . . - by T.J. Aubry et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 28AUG19 ||  . . . Volcanic Forcing Driving Atlantic Multidecadal Variability over the last 600 years - by Amanda J. Waite / AGU 20NOV20.
• Earth's Interior - NASA Study Goes to Earth's Core for Climate Insights - by Alan Buis / JPL,NASA 09MAR11. || Exploring the relationship between nitrogen and carbon dioxide in greenhouse gas emissions - by Qun Gao et al. / University Of Oklahoma 14DEC20.
• Deep Life - Life in Deep Earth Totals 15 to 23 Billion Tonnes of Carbon—Hundreds of Times More than Humans - by Terry Collins et al. / Deep Carbon Observatory 10DEC18.
• Earth's Magnetic Field - Analysis and attribution of climate change in the upper atmosphere from 1950 to 2015 . . . - by I. Cnossen / JGR Space Physics 16NOV20.
• Anthropogenic Cooling - Larger Sensitivity of Arctic Precipitation Phase to Aerosol than Greenhouse Gas forcing - by Shifeng Pan et al. / AGU 20NOV20.
• Heat Miser - by Phyllis McGinley et al. / Rankin/Bass (YT) 10DEC74.
   

Acid Oceans?

    A parallel avenue of concern related to increases to atmospheric CO2 is potential acidification to the oceans and the effect upon biology there.  A lot of research is being done in this arena, but the badness of acidification leans more to a question of perspective.  Some flora and fauna like their pH more alkaline and some like it more acidic.  The evolutionary branches that have been around for a pretty long time have survived major changes over the years.  In many areas pH has been shown to change considerably and rapidly for numerous reasons unrelated to CO2 in the atmosphere.  Dire predictions about coral reefs dying off due to acidity are commonplace.  But it turns out, those bleached out dead coral reefs shown to demonstrate the devastation of CO2 driven acidification come roaring right back to full health in often just a few years with no meddling required from humans.

    Before we get too worked up, we must remember ocean life has a powerful trick up its sleeve.  Migration in the oceans is often as easy as catching the local current.  Nowadays, passing cargo ships can be included in the list of ways hitchhikers can move around and have an effect on things.  Not always an effect desirable to humans, mind you.  Invasive Species In The Great Lakes - by EPA.   These modes of dispersion can spawn colonies upon most of the world's surface.  A great example of this is the spooky way creatures requiring volcanic steam to survive are able to populate widely dispersed vents around the globe.  (Hydrothermal Vent Microbial Communities - Wiki, Discovering Hydrothermal Vents by Dive And Discover / Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)  Extinction due to loss of access to habitable environment is usually a much more landlocked type of problem where a species is unable to re-establish itself in more favorable regions when conditions change.  And let's face facts.  Far too often the adversely changing condition on land is human settlement.  And much too commonly, more favorable regions are becoming scarce or nonexistent as a result of our coastal proliferation.

    In terms of global oceanic effect, even a slight change in the overall pH of oceans could have an effect on the frequency and size of algae blooms.  There is heavy debate about the extent of actual global pH drop, the measurement methodologies, their interpretation, and modeled predictions.  For acidity, there is much less present day measurement coverage and mapping than for the temperature record.  There are also far fewer established proxy timeline reconstructions for acidity compared to global temperature.  We know how notoriously shifty temperature records are in the legendary debates looking for the truth about historical climate.  pH is the same with less data.  You do the math.

    What is certain is that pH and availability of CO2 are determinant regarding which varieties of algae bloom.  Algae can have a tremendous effect on CO2 sequestration on global scales and could function as a regulator of sustainable CO2 levels in the atmosphere.  These blooms are also capable of severely impacting the rest of the ocean's biology either positively in terms of greater food abundance, or for some types of algae blooms, horrifying neurotoxic death for nearly anything that comes in contact with it.  I suspect the reason we're not seeing oceanic acidity spike along with CO2 ppm in the atmosphere as much as many have predicted is that the oceans possess a vastly underestimated capacity to use extra CO2.  The seas have greened up and are teaming with invigorated life eating up all the yummy additional CO2.  In just a few million years, their carcasses will have cured into some nice new coal beds and oil fields.  Ostensibly by then we'll have some truly viable energy alternatives to use instead.

    This is an area of conservation where a lot can be done to have a meaningful impact on the environment.  Acidification and pH changes to ocean water causing algae blooms are affected tremendously by human pollution in the form of river runoff filled with poo, micro-plastics, pesticides, fertilizer, medications, GMOs, and in general, the oozing slime of humanity.  Efforts to better control runoff pollution are a legitimate and logical pursuit deserving of a much larger share of the focus from those concerned about effects of human pollution.  Unfortunately, there is trouble for the science around acidification measurement and related predictions.  My take on the acidification discussion is that there is one irrefutable claim that can be made.  More research is needed.

• What is Ocean Acidification? - by NOAA.
• Harmful Algae Blooms - by NOAA.
• In bloom - by Maria-José Viñas / NASA 11JUN12.
• 7 Things You Need To Know About GMO Salmon - by Alice Park / Time 29NOV15.
• Macroalgae May Mitigate Ocean Acidification Effects On Mussel Calcification By Increasing pH And Its Fluctuations - by Wahl et al 26JUN17.
• Ocean Acidification Exposed as Fake News - by Kenneth Richard / Principia Scientific 02JAN17.
• Responses Of Two Temperate Sponge Species To Ocean Acidification - by Tracey E. M. Bates and James J. Bell / University of Wellington 06SEP17.
• 3 More New Papers Expose The Folly Of ‘Ocean Acidification’ Claims - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone 24MAY18.
• Coral Reef Fully Recovers (For 400th Time), Researchers Surprised (Again) - by Jo Nova 02JUL19.
• Coral Skeleton Crystals Record Ocean Acidification - by FECYT / Science Daily 11JUL19.
• Drivers of pH Variability in Coastal Ecosystems - by Jacob Carstensen and Carlos M. Duarte / American Chemical Society 20MAR19.
• Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes - by Timothy D. Clark et al. / Nature 08JAN20.
• Contradicting prevalent view, UCI oceanographers predict increase in phytoplankton - by Brian Bell / UCI News 27JAN20.
• The ocean’s ‘biological pump’ captures more carbon than expected - by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 06APR20.
• Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory - by Andrew J Watson et al. / Nature 04SEP20.  Oceans soak up 900 million tons more CO2 a year than previously thought.
• More than just a sun tan: ultraviolet light helps marine animals to tell the time of year - by Kristin Tessmar-Raible / Universität Wien 11JAN21.
• Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt - by Martin Enserink / AAAS 06MAY21.
• Something Smells Fishy: Allegations of Fraud in Ocean Acidification Research - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 10MAY21.
• Massive Coral Growth at the Great Barrier Reef Continues to Defy all the Fashionable Doomsday Climate Predictions - by Chris Morrison / Daily Sceptic 04AUG22.
• Four decades of coral research lead to an exciting discovery for tropical Pacific corals - by AOML / Climate.gov 22MAR23.
   

Is Warming Really The Most Likely Trend?

     The global warming narrative got going in the late 80's, and by the 00's a mass purging of the collective climate science pre-Al was undertaken.  Before then, the climate science pendulum was swinging in the opposite direction with concerns about a potential coming ice age.  There has never been a refutation of the ice age pattern that formed the basis of the global freezing theory your grandparents were taught.

- From Wikipedia*

     "There is no reason to believe that another ice age won't come.  In the past, warm cycles lasted about 10,000 years and it's been that long since the last cool period." (American Museum of Natural History, NYC).  Be careful where you share this info, or risk the wrath of the climate cult.  Quaternary Geology is now climate “misinformation.” / by David Middleton 09JAN18.

     Are we actually headed toward another ice age?  These repeating cycles appear to suggest it.  So do some scientists and independent observers.  Many bucking the trend and predicting global cooling or a coming ice age are looking to the Sun for inspiration.  It is generally accepted that in the past, grand solar minima like Maunder, Dalton, Spörer have impacted climate.  It is also predicted by many scientists that we are headed for another grand solar minimum this century, although there is disagreement about how soon.  On one end of the spectrum we have John Casey (Dark Winter: How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell), and Northumbria University professor Valentina Zharkova predicting grand solar minimum to hit over the next solar cycles 2020 or the next one around 2031.  NASA and many others expect it 2-3 cycles further down the line.  Previous grand minima have shown a declining sunspot production trend prior to going into full hibernation and this is the same trend we are seeing now.  So it does look like one is coming.  Could this be what kicks Earth into the next overdue Ice Age?  Even if it is just a pronounced solar minimum, could the coming century bring suffering and starvation around the globe as agricultural yields plummet because growing seasons fail?  Is it possible carbon taxing and large scale carbon sequestration strategies might increase the severity of the coming minimum?

Ye Olde Article Timeline:
Solar Climate Forcing, Minima, and Ice Ages

• Space Weather Impact On Climate - by NOAA.
• Volcanoes can affect the Earth's climate - by USGS.
• Solaris Heppa - Solar influences for SPARC.
• The Coming Ice Age - by Betty Frieda / Harper's 01SEP58.
• In Search Of The Coming Ice Age - by Leanord Nimoy (YT) / In Search Of 01MAY78.
• Power From The Sun / The Sun's Energy - by W.B.Stine and R.W.Harrigan 1986.
• Glaciers, Old Masters, and Galileo: The Puzzle of the Chilly 17th Century - by Drew Shindell / NASA 01DEC02.
• Influence of the disturbed solar wind on atmospheric processes in Antarctica and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - by Oleg Alexandrovich Troshichev 01JAN05.
• Solar Irradiance - by Rob Garner / NASA 01JAN08.
• Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber - by Toshikasu Ebisuzaki et al. / Gondwana Research 01JUN11.
• Cosmic rays and clouds: Potential mechanisms - by Jeffrey Pierce / Dalhousie U. / Real Climate 26SEP11.
• Do cosmic rays influence climate? Some new results from CERN - by Karl Braganza and Justin Peter / The Conversation 09OCT11.
• The un-ice age - by Jane Beitler / NASA 20NOV11.
• Unusual volcanic episode rapidly triggered Little Ice Age, researchers find - by Jim Scott  / University Of Colorado / AGU / NCAR 30JAN12.
• Sun Series - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 27MAY14.  START HERE IF YOU ARE NEW TO SOLAR FORCING
• Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to mini ice age levels - by Royal Astronomical Society / Science Daily 09JUL15.
• A 'Mini Ice Age' Is Coming in The Next 15 Years - by Zharkova (Northumbria) prediction of Solar Minimum next Solar Cycle BEC Crew / Science Alert 13JUL15.
• Diminishing solar activity may bring new Ice Age by 2030 - by Zharkova / Astronomy Now 17JUL15.
• Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover - by Technical University of Denmark / Science Daily 25AUG16.
• New Paper: 14 Scientists Affirm the Sun, Not CO2, is ‘Dominant Control’ of Recent Climate Change - by Kenneth Richard / Principia Scientific 24JAN17.
• Solar forcing for CMIP6 - by Katja Mathes et al. / Geoscientific Model Development 22JUN17.
• A Shifting Shield Provides Protection Against Cosmic Rays - by Susan Kohler / NOVA AAS 01DEC17.
• Bundle Up: Scientists Predict 'Mini Ice Age' Will Hit Earth in Five Years - by Matthew Loffhagen / Outer Places 28DEC17.
• Study: Solar Cycle to Cause a ‘Mini Ice Age’ as Early as 2020 - Zharkova again.- by Matt Agorist / Principia Scientific 03JAN18.
• Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020 - by Mindy Weisberger / Live Science 09FEB18.
• Influence of solar wind energy flux on the interannual variability of ENSO in the subsequent year - by Sheng-Ping He et al. 12FEB18.
• Nir Shaviv - The Cosmic Ray Climate Link - by Nir Shaviv / GWPF (YT) 09APR18.
• Proof that the sun, not CO2, drives Earth's climate - by Roger Higgs / Oxford, Geoclastica Ltd. 01JUN18.
• Do Cosmic Rays Trigger Earthquakes, Volcanic Eruptions? - by John O'Sullivan / Principia Scientific 02JUL18.
• The Next Ice Age - by Fred Singer / The Independent 24JUL18.
• Astrophysicists link volcanic eruptions and Grand Solar Minimum - by David Hilton / XYZ 17SEP18.
• The response of longwave radiation at the South Pole to electrical and magnetic variations: Links to meteorological generators and the solar wind - by John E. Frederick and Brian A. Tinsley / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Volume 179, Pages 214-224 01NOV18.
• Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability - by JGR Space Physics (NASA, NOAA, U of M) 06DEC18.
• . . . Estimates of UV Continua and Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability - by Serena Criscuoli / The American Astronomical Society 08FEB19.
• Cosmic Rays Increasing for the 4th Year in a Row - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 21FEB19.
• Fatal Flaw In Climate Change Science - by Suspicious Observers / Ben Davidson 26FEB19.
• Solar slump continues – NOAA: “No indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 05APR19.
• Enhanced North American carbon uptake associated with El Niño - by Lie Hu et al. / Science Advances 05JUN19.
• Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale - by V.V.Zharkova et al. / Scientific Reports - Nature 24JUN19.  There are major flaws in this paper, it almost looks like a Charles Hapgood style straw man op to derail solar forcing research.  It was later withdrawn.
• Global Warming ‘Truth will out!’ - by Roger Higgs / Principia Scientific 26JUN19.
• China Scientists Warn Of Global Cooling Trick Up Nature’s Sleeve - by Stephen Chen / South China Morning Post 11AUG19.
• Changes of space weather and space climate at Earth orbit: An update - by H.S. Ahluwalia / Science Direct 01SEP19.
• What Are Solar Cycles, and How Do They Affect Weather - by Catherine Boeckmann / Farmer's Almanac 11OCT19.
• Radiative effects of daily cycle of cloud frequency in past and future climates - by Jun Yin and Amilcare Porporato / Princeton 11DEC19.
• Reactions of the middle atmosphere circulation and stationary planetary waves on the solar activity effects in the thermosphere - by A.V. Koval et al / JGR Space Physics 15DEC19.
• THE SUN | Plasma Climate Forcing (Part 1) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 02JAN20.
• Plasma Climate Forcing | Path to the Atmosphere (Part 2) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 04JAN20.
• Plasma Climate Forcing | Vortex and Jet Streams (Part 3) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 06JAN20.
• Plasma Climate Forcing | The Sun & The Oceans (Part 4) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 09JAN20.
• Plasma Climate Forcing | Tropical Storms (Part 5) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 14JAN20.
• The Sun & Earth | Rapid Temperature Forcing (Part 6) - by Ben Davidson /Suspicious Observers (YT) 19JAN20.
• Ozone-depleting gases might have driven extreme Arctic warming - by Giuliana Viglione / Nature 20JAN20.
• THE SUN | Plasma Climate Forcing Finale - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 24JAN20.
• A note on the recent use of tree-ring data to investigate a Sun-Amazon River link - by Andrés Antico and María E.Torres / Journal Of Hydrology 28JAN20.  Sunspot tree ring correlation.
• Scenario #4 | Real Climate Science - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 03FEB20.
• A new 5680-year tree-ring temperature reconstruction for southern South America . . . - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone 03FEB20.  Tree ring reconstruction finds recent warming trend the past couple of decades is not unusual.
• Low Latitude Lightning Activity Responses to Cosmic Ray Forbush Decreases - by Liang Zhang et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 10FEB20.
• Sun-like Stars Shed Light On Solar Climate Forcing - P.G. Judge et all./ UCAR, NCAR, High Altitude Observatory 11FEB20.  10x more climate forcing in this new estimate.
• Timing Terminators: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Onset - by Robert J. Leamon et al. / Solar Physics 27FEB20.
• QBO, ENSO and Solar Cycle Effects in Short‐term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability on Planetary Wave Timescales from SABER ‐ An Information‐Theoretic Approach - by Komal Kumari et al. / JGR Atmospheres 03MAR20.
• Paper That Blames The Sun For Climate Change Was Just Retracted From Major Journal - by Michelle Starr / Science Alert 05MAR20.  Killing the flawed Zharkova study.
• The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales - by Christian L.E. Franzke et al. / Reviews Of Geophysics 05MAR20.
• Impact of Cloud Ice Particle Size Uncertainty in A Climate Model and Implications for Future Satellite Missions - by Yuan Wang et al. / JGR Atmospheres 10MAR20.
• Rapid 14C excursion at 3372-3371 BCE not observed at two different locations – comment on Wang et al. (2017) - by A J Timothy Jull et al. / 13MAR20.  Every tree ring sample examined provided evidence of 11 year solar cycle forcing.
• What causes an ice age to end? - by University Of Melbourne 13MAR20.
• How a small nuclear war would transform the entire planet - by Alexandra Witze / Nature 16MAR20.  Spoiler alert: It could cause an ice age.
• The Double‐ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on Annual Mean Precipitation - by Baijun TIan et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 28MAR20.  Still getting it wrong, still ignoring the sun.
• Resolving the differences in the simulated and reconstructed temperature response to volcanism - by Feng Zhu et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 28MAR20.
• Influence of enhanced planetary wave activity on the polar vortex enhancement related to energetic electron precipitation - by Timo Asikainen et al. / JGR Atmospheres 16APR20.  Polar vortex is modulated by the sun.
• Four Years of Continuous Seafloor Displacement Measurements in the Campi Flegrei Caldera - by Prospero De Martino et al. / Front. Earth Sci 08DEC20.  Is this the next big one?
• Seasonal and solar wind sector duration influences on the correlation of high latitude clouds with ionospheric potential - by Brian A. Tinsley et al. / JGR Atmospheres 22DEC20.
• Examining geomagnetic activity effects on CO2‐driven trend in the thermosphere and ionosphere using ideal model experiments with GAIA - by Huixin Liu et al. / JGR Space Physics 25DEC20.
• Can Geomagnetic Storms Affect Stratospheric O3 and NOx in the South Atlantic Anomaly Zone? - by Marta M. Zossi et al. / Pure Appl. Geophys. 08JAN21.
• Heading For An Ice Age | Top Journal Selections - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 19JAN21.
• Sun Controls Climate | Part 1 - Upper Atmosphere - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 02NOV21.
• Sun Controls Climate | Part 2 - Major Cycles - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 09NOV21.
• Sun Controls Climate | Part 3 - Lower Atmosphere - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 16NOV21.
• Sun Controls Climate | Part 4 - Global Warming - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers (YT) 24NOV21.
• Evidence from Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered A Secular Minimum in Solar Activity - by F. Rahmanifard et al. / AGU 16DEC21.

(Courtesy of Solen.info)
Decreasing sunspot activity trend.
 

The Lies

     And then we have the outright fraud and bad science.  Time and again global warming proponents have been caught posing as scientists skewing, fudging, and forging data in their effort to wrench reality into their global warming fantasy.

• Climategate #1 - James Delingpole investigative journalist finds evidence of conspiracy to commit fraud in leaked e-mails: December 2009.  Chief among the damning quotes was in regards to manipulating tree ring data from Phil Jones discussions with Michael Mann.  "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."  There is some credence to the claim that these e-mail quotes were taken out of context and the decline being referenced is actually decline in reliability of tree ring samples rather than the implication it is about a decline in temperatures being hidden.  Nevertheless, some serious questions remain about the way the data is massaged to match a desired result, followed by efforts to hide or keep the data from others to avoid scrutiny.

  - Wiki aritcle.  Climatic Research Unit email controversy - wiki's stance.
  - Climate change: this is the worst scientific scandal of our generation - by James Delingpole / The Telegraph 28NOV09.
  - Telegraph's Booker on the "climategate" scandal - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 28NOV09.
  - The Fiction Of Climate Science - by Gary Sutton / Forbes 04DEC09
  - Delingpole: Climategate 10 Years On - The Bastards Have Got Away With It - by James Delingpole / Breitbart 17NOV19.
   

• Climategate #2 - More leaked scientists correspondence in November 2011.  Climategate 2.0: New E-Mails Rock The Global Warming Debate - by James Taylor / Forbes 23NOV11.  A new batch of scientist e-mail leaks demonstrate:
  
  - Prominent scientists central to the global warming debate are taking measures to conceal rather than disseminate underlying data and discussions.
  - These scientists view global warming as a political “cause” rather than a balanced scientific inquiry.
  - Many of these scientists frankly admit to each other that much of the science is weak and dependent on deliberate manipulation of facts and data.
   
• Climategate #3 - February 2017, NOAH Wisteblower John Bates revealed scientists were trying to block access to the data, and using a trick to conceal embarrassing flaws in their claims about global warming.  NOAA accused of manipulating global warming data by Fox News (YT) 07FEB17.
   
• Though wiki still says otherwise, Earth Is Not in the Midst of a Sixth Mass Extinction - by Peter Brannen / The Atlantic 13JUN17.
   
• Another Debunking - July 2017, as more of the data is obtained and scrutinized, it becomes painfully obvious that regularly the data used by the IPCC has been massaged to try to show warming trends that are not real.  Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: "Not Reality... Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data" - by Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge 15JUL17.
   
• Very High Probability Of Fraud By Government Climate Scientists - by Tony Heller / (YT) 10AUG17. Just the tip of the iceberg of the fraud in the recent leaked climate report draft by New York Times 07AUG17.
   
• Will The Real Temperature Record Please Stand Up - Land Surface Air Temperature Data Are Considerably Different Among BEST‐LAND, CRU‐TEM4v, NASA‐GISS, and NOAA‐NCEI by University Of Maryland 28MAY18.
   
• Confessions of a climate scientist - by Mototaka Nakamura 12JUL18.
   
• How Al Gore built the global warming fraud - by Paul Driessen / CFact 20OCT18.
   
• Grand Solar Minimum is coming. And..? - by Dave Borlace / Just Have a Think 04AUG19.  This is a classic example of a climate alarmist attempt to debunk global cooling caused by solar minimum.  Dave starts us off with a very nicely done sunspot cycle history.  He then swoops in and targets the solar irradiance trend graph to suggest solar forcing is minimal.  Dave misleads us by misrepresenting the scope of the data he's using.  What's being used here is Solar Irradiance in specific UV wavelengths which totally ignores the variable kinds of energy the sun sends our way.  Dave then proceeds to aptly demonstrate the way this logical fallacy is used to calculate 0.25 Watts/m2 and apply this figure as total solar forcing to arrive at a variability of 0.018%.  Here we are applying perfectly logical calculations using dubiously truncated data to support a completely fallacious conclusion.  Dave's further debunking of Maunder minimum's correlation to the little Ice Age does something similar.  In the correlation analysis, he starts at the point during maunder minimum when sunspots completely flat-lined.  Yet this ignores the major drop in sunspot activity leading up to full Maunder minimum.  He then complains that the little ice age temperature drop started 50 years before Maunder minimum achieved a complete absence of sunspots.  While he's making this complaint, if you examine the sunspot graph showing at the top, it is obviously truncated to attempt to hide the sunspot decline prior to Maunder minimum.  But it isn't truncated quite enough to hide the major drop in sunspots more than 2 solar cycles before we hit 0 sunspots around 1650 at Maunder minimum.  The bottom graph uses an extended Little Ice Age start arrow before the prior peak of temp variation instead of the first trough in 1600.  Despite these shenanigans, hilariously, the sunspot decline Dave's showing us closely mirrors the little ice age temperature drops anyway while he's saying the opposite is true.  It gets even better from there.  Dave next directs us to an article stating that instead of solar forcing, the Maunder minimum was brought about by volcanic activity.  Assuming this isn't a purposeful con job, we must hope our narrator is simply blissfully unaware that volcanic activity is definitively tied to cosmic ray increase, which is definitively caused by . . . you guessed it . . . solar minimum.   Dave just managed to take direct evidence of the effect solar minimum has upon climate via cosmic ray induced volcanic activity and used this as proof solar minimum doesn't effect climate.  It's ok though.  Dave must be using the most fundamental scientific principle of all supporting anthropogenic global warming:  The negative reality inversion - Neil et al. / Young Ones 12JUN84, oh and . . . some receipts: Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events - by Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson / Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 17JAN22. (Preprint) | Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle - Science Direct.
   
• Erasing America's Hot Past - by Tony Heller / (YT) 04AUG19.
   
• Confessions Of A Climate Scientist - by Larry Kummer / Fabius Maximus 01OCT19 - Review with English excerpts from Mototaka Nakamura's Japanese work.
   
• There are many, many more examples of fraud and bad science being used to prop up failing global warming models. (No Tricks Zone).

   

  The Believers

"Denial is denial, the evidence is overwhelming, and the question of whether humans are causing climate change is not an open question, it’s a settled question." - Billy Nye on Tucker Carlson - by Fox (YT) 27FEB17.

“The moment the politicians start saying they are in denial of what the scientists are telling them, of what the consensus of scientific experiments demonstrates, that is the beginning of the end of an informed democracy.” - Neil deGrasse Tyson: Politicians Denying Science Is Beginning Of The End Of An Informed Democracy - by Ari Phillips / Think Progress 18APR15

"The science is settled!" - Gore Takes Global Warming Message to Congress - by All Things Considered / NPR 21MAR07.

     There is a fundamental flaw in their concept of science itself.  They have fallen prey to the fallacy that truths describing reality are subject to the dictates of majority opinion.  That consensus equates to truth (Argumentum ad Populum).

     This departure from reason recurs throughout history.  The masses forge themselves a modern paradigm of wisdom.  Adherents hold fast to antiquated theories even in the face of overwhelming contradictory evidence.  It is much easier to keep believing what you were taught, than to perpetually re-examine your assumptions and assertions.  Yet reliance on accepted tradition is against everything science stands for.  Hypothesis, prediction, experimentation, evaluation, and replication are the core tenets of science.  Not belief.  Not consensus.  And not popularity.

     While this seems to be the same point Neil is making in the above quote, if one looks more closely at the manner in which he employs the principle, it is clear that he is turning his own argument on its head.  When Neil says that if a politician denies what scientists are telling them is an established truth, that this is the end of democracy, he is advocating blind acceptance of what those scientists are saying.  Of all science imposters, Neil is the most insidious.  His "Master Class" series is a direct attack on citizen science.  In the guise of teaching us all how to think, Neil intends to brainwash the sheep dumb enough to pay him for the opportunity to follow his amiable lead and stop questioning his authority.  There are not 3 truths as he suggests: objective, political and personal.  There can be only one my brother.  Objective truth.  You sir, along with elite academia, are not the sole keepers and purveyors of truth.  You are the entrenched establishment tradition.  You are the oppressive tyranny of the mob against science.  You ooze hubris from every pore each time you force yourself onto my screen.  Carl would be so disappointed in you.  My advice Neil, is to stop talking and do some observing, learning and reflection.  You have a lot of catching up to do boomer.

    Bill Nye, our Lord Minkus of Cringe, goes even further promoting the idea of government force being used to coerce non-believers. ( "Bill Nye, the science guy, is open to criminal charges and jail time for climate change dissenters" - by Valerie Richardson / Washington Times 14APR16)  Unfortunately, some in government have heard Bill's clarion call to action.  Lawmaker Wants To Know Why Climate Misinformation Is Rampant On YouTube - by Kenneth Corbin / Forbes 28JAN20.  Yet, the most necessary of all disciplines in science, and for that matter, rationality, is healthy skepticism not just of new theories, but of the old ones too.  Such bullying tactics being used to pursue suppression of this discourse by Kathy Castor and her colleagues far outside of their legislative purview must be opposed. (Scenario #4 | Real Climate Science (YT) - by Suspicious Observers 03FEB20)

     The way interactions happen between scientists are a critical part of the scientific method.  Even if a scientist is of the most reputable sort, the most credence their peers should give to any theory they present is to trust but verify.  Yet in the mainstream, any effort to verify and evaluate the tenets of the climate cult is shot down with the "denier" dismissal.  Unfortunately, it is also shot down by the bottom line too, in a sense that research to undertake skeptical studies of the "established science" is quashed by mainstream ridicule and the resulting cessation of funding.  (Global Warming: Follow The Money by Henry Payne / National Review 25FEB15).  To make matters worse, even if funding somehow materializes for replication studies, we find that in climate science in particular, findings are regularly published without the necessary "recipe" for others to attempt to replicate.  (Before Reproducibility Must Come Preproducibility by Philip B. Stark / Nature 24MAY18).
 

The Deniers

     The global warming apocalyptic credo of human caused doom and gloom has become endemic throughout mainstream media, academic institutions, and government.  Yet one must, if they consider themselves a person of science and reason, continue examining the accumulation of evidence.  In evaluating the planet sized claims that the climate cult has leveraged into government policies, one must insist upon a proportionate preponderance of evidence.  Alternative theories should be given solid footing to try to make their case.  A balanced, unbiased, forcibly objective methodology is required.  "Deniers" should be encouraged.  They should be given every support in their pursuit.

     When

• Noelle Metting - Congress: Obama Admin Fired Top Scientist to Advance Climate Change Plans - Adam Kredo / The Washington Free Beacon 20DEC16.
   
• Judith Curry - Resigned from Georgia Institute Of Technology - Ronald Bailey / Reason 04JAN17.  Climate Etc. / judithcurry.com.
   
• Freeman Dyson - Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson has been roundly criticized for insisting global warming is not an urgent problem - Michael Lemonick 04JUN09.
   
• John Coleman - Cofounder of the weather channel.
  - John Coleman On Global Warming - Glenn Beck interview (YT) 13NOV07.
  - John Coleman Debunks the Myth of Global Warming - The Auto Channel (YT) 26DEC09.
  - There Is No Significant Global Warming - How the Global Warming Scare Began - KUSI News (YT) 12MAR14.
  - Weather Channel Founder Destroys Global Warming Mythology - The Next News Network / WHDT 9 (YT) 27MAR14.
  - Climate Change Is Fake - Megyn Kelly / Fox Interview (YT) 28OCT14
  - Fully triggered alarmist backlash: Weather Channel Co-Founder's Climate Denial Finds Warm Welcome At Fox News - Denise Robbins / Media Matters 28OCT14
  - More: Weather Channel co-founder John Coleman prefers conspiracies to climate science by Dana Nuccitelli / The Guardian 03NOV14.
  - CNN Slammed By John Coleman Over Climate Change Fraud - by Brian Stelter / CNN (YT) 02NOV14.
   
• Piers Corbyn
  - Astrophysicist, philosopher and businessman who founded the now defunct WeatherAction.com which for a time repeatedly beat the Met Office with weather predictions based on solar forcing.
  - Don't Bet on Man-Made Origins of Global Warming - by H. LaRouche Jr. / EIR 01JUN07.
  - The rebel in the family - by Tim Adams / Guardian 24JAN16.
  - Wealth Redistribution Through Climate Activism | Piers Corbyn Interview - by Sargon Of Akkad (BC) 30OCT19 - Amazing discussion of the carbon taxing hijinks in the EU, though their divergence into prognostication about Piers brother Jeremy and his Labor party's future against Boris in this interview is perhaps a bit unfortunate given how things turned out.
   
• Roger Pielke Jr. - This scientist proved climate change isn’t causing extreme weather - so politicians attacked - by Ross McKitrick 07JUN19
   
• Roy Spencer - People who call climate deniers "climate deniers" should be called "global warming Nazis - by Lindsay Abrams / Salon 21FEB14.  It’s Time to Play “Refute a Denier,” with Dr. Roy Spencer by Tony Heller 25JUL19.  www.drroyspencer.com.  Roy was among the first climate modeling pioneers and is particularly skilled at identifying current model efficacy deficiencies.
   
• Patrick Moore - Former president of Greenpeace.  Climate Science Denier Patrick Moore Under Attack - by Graham Readfearn 07APR16
   
• Jennifer Morahasy - Heavily and deceitfully attacked for her demonstrations of the natural variations that explain climate phenomenon. jennifermarohasy.com.
   
• Peter Ridd - Depersoned for pointing out that much recent science around the Great Barrier Reef fails replication tests, and some serious efforts should be made to validate findings before expensive programs are pursued.
  
  - Science's Replication Crisis - by Stefan Molyneux (BC) 06SEP18.
  - Dr. Peter Ridd wins $1.2 million judgment – appeal possible - by Anthony Watts / WUWT 05SEP19.
  - Peter Ridd case Appealed by James Cook University - by Charles Rotter / WUWT 22SEP19.
   
• Nir Shaviv - Chairman of physics board at Jerusalem's Hebrew University blocked by Forbes editor from publishing this article about his work.  Global Warming?  An Israeli Astrophysicist Provides Alternative View That Is Not Easy To Reject - by Doron Levin 09AUG19.
   
• Eddard of House Stark - Beheaded as a staunch global warming denier.  Winter Is Coming.  Just sayin' . . . we have fictional precedence here now folks.  Shizzle just got real.

. . . and others (Wikipedia: Scientists Opposing Global Warming) are career wrecked, shunned and shamed for coming to alternative conclusions, this should be a wake up call to seekers of truth.  There are agendas and narratives in the game, and they do not want their version of reality questioned.  When Greta Thunberg makes an emotional plea to the EU ( - by Guardian News 16APR19), these claims must be permitted to be countered.  Suppression of those that try should be a Batman alarm sized signal that here . . . sheep are being led.  Go get her soph: GRETA - by soph 24JUN19.

     We must insist that within the discipline of science, the quest for truth be allowed to stand apart from the fickle moods and agendas of the village mob.  RationalWiki - Global Warming provides a venomous, practically weaponized "denialism" handbook for the faithful.   Yes, you heard that right, team warming has let loose the 'ism bomb in their crusade.  Dare to critically examine mainstream claims, and that's what's headed your way.  Media Matters Climate Denial Hitlist: Meet The Climate Denial Machine - by Jill Fitzsimmons / Media Matters 28NOV12.

How This Mania Affected Me, also a comprehensive review of
Catastrophic Climate Claims

     There is something alarming to me about the way public discourse about science has evolved.  When I took an Oceanography class at the University of Cincinnati in 1989, I was exposed to some of the first global climate modeling efforts.  These tools absolutely fascinated me.  In particular, I fell in love with the genius of the first work on the oceanic global conveyor currents and how this mechanism could introduce huge correlation lag times in the way it interacts with climate.  Later on the El Nina and El Nino modeling became an obsession.  A weather fan, what a geek.  I know.  And yet even in these well studied and defined oceanic heating patterns, we can still be treated to new discoveries about how they work identifying new variables to track for more accurate models.  NASA Study Adds a Pinch of Salt to El Niño Models - by Jessica Merzdorf / Goddard 08APR20.

     In junior high science class I learned the difference between the models used to try to understand principles and the cold calculations used to generate predictions.  Predictions then subjected to the scrutiny of observation and replication.  Yet in later academic pursuits, simulations and fancy computer driven graphics became all the rage.  Forays into model driven fortune telling were being used to produce wild speculations.  More and more, these were sitting right alongside rigorously studied and established principles.

     This academic daydreaming was fantastic and fun.  Carl Sagan's flight of fancy about possible life forms in the cosmos was particularly awe inspiring.  How thrilling it was to see these ideas come to life and to imagine such a universe.  But I started to realize that while flights of fancy are sci-fi funtastic, it was becoming harder and harder to differentiate between the sci-fi and the legitimate sci.

     Not long after that Oceanography class, I was exposed to the blockbusters of science in a course called "Earth In Upheaval".  This class was a total blast and also the easiest A on campus.  What it covered was essentially every Hollywood catastrophic premise ever employed.  There were mile high tsunamis and massive asteroid impacts.  Caldera's were getting their first bit of the spotlight.  There was even a theory about electrical fire between the planets as they were jostled around to different orbits above pre-historic humans.  This hypothesis gathered subjectively interpreted archeological evidence to support a theory that disparate civilizations saw planets moving around in the sky and that their cave art was evidence of this.

     What a beautiful and fulfilling thing it would be to have celestial depictions in cave art providing a glimpse at the titanic events in the heavens of the ancients.  How terrifying, how awesome, to witness such a sky.  But could this theory ever be proven or disproven?  Where are the predictions from this notion to be validated?  This fantasy novel was being taught right next to much more substantiated evidence of asteroid impacts at mass extinction boundaries in the fossil record.  Given the same weight.  Something just wasn't right about this to me.  It began to dawn on me that there might be troubling consequences to what had started so joyfully with Carl Sagan.  We'd begun to merge dreams and science, and what society was perceiving as science was becoming less and less scientific, and much more hypothetical.

     Crazy thing was, the actual breakthroughs in science at the time were astonishing.  Advances in astronomy, physics, biology, medicine, genetics, optics, electronics and of course, computer networking were barreling forward.  Yet these things were happening without nearly the fanfare of the more speculative and cataclysmic musings of guys like Asimov and Hawking.

     Fast forward to 2006 and the Al Gore movie, 'An Inconvenient Truth'.  I was a busy butterfly back in those days, and the notion of being subjected to Al Gore's smarmy righteousness was an unpleasantness.  So, despite the rather worrisome comments I kept hearing about the message of the film, it was about a year after the film came out before I finally got around to watching it.

     As I watched, I suspect my face looked similar to the iconic Game Of Thrones Red Wedding faces.  Transfixed I stared, at first fascinated, then surprised, and then swiftly shocked, saddened and most of all disgusted.  I most definitely became worried after watching it.  But not in the same way as most folks.  It wasn't the habitability of Earth that troubled me more than usual.  It was the future of science.  Here are a few items from the movie and some follow up regarding the various predicted dooms.

• 97% Of Scientists Agree - When Al started talking about this aspect of his argument, that would probably be akin to the belly stab moment in the aforementioned Red Wedding expressions.  Science doesn't work like this.  Truth doesn't work like this either.  Hypothesis, prediction, experiment (or evaluation when doing predictive models), replication.  These are how you get to a scientific step forward in understanding.  Not with popularity contests.  Humanity has, unfortunately as one of it's most reliable traits, the tendency to easily believe things that are not true if presented at the right age, and to keep on believing the things even if new evidence is overwhelmingly at odds with their views.  It was once quite popular to think the Sun orbited the Earth.  Even more than 97% of scientists agreed about this - at least publicly.  Didn't make it right.
   
• 97% Of Scientists Agree (Part Deux) - Really?  Something seems to be missing.  Al says these scientists agree that humans cause warming to the planet.  Duh.  Every time I cook dinner, every time I turn on a light, every time I respire, I release heat energy that goes into the system.  Who are the 3% who don't think that?  But those polls didn't check if the scientists thought CO2 was causing it.  Or if they thought the amount of heat energy or secondary effects like pollution would be enough to make any difference.  That step in the logic path just gets bypassed.  ('97% Of Climate Scientists Agree' Is 100% Wrong - by Alex Epstein / Forbes 06JAN16.)
   
• Hockey Shtick - The fact that 2 things have a correlated trend is always interesting and worthy of a closer look.  That's the usual way a hypothesis is hatched, n'est-ce pas?  You see something that looks maybe related to something else.  You then ask yourself why that is.  There are only a few possibilities.  One of the things is causing the other, both of the trends are caused by something else, what you're seeing is just random chance (P value - Wiki), or your data is wrong.  Al didn't do such a great job of making a case that CO2 was causing temperature rise and not the other way around.  More troublingly, he seemed to forget the possibility that both trends were just the signature of another cause.  Hmm.  Oh, and can I take a closer gander at your data?

- Global Warming Bomshell - by Richard Muller / MIT Technology Review 15OCT04.  Thrashes the trend line manipulation used to generate the hockey stick graph
- Hockey Stick Controversy (Wiki) - Just some of the legal battles.
- Decision Looms In Michael Mann / Tim Ball "Hockey Stick" Lawsuit - by Bonner Cohen, Ph. D. / CFact 24JUL17.  Really interesting if you are curious about Mark Steyn's CVs.  Also interesting if you consider this as a case where a court of law is trying to determine an outcome of science, something that historically has seen results like the barbequing of Galileo's follower Bruno, another famous example of a court of law determining an outcome of science.
- Breaking: Fatal Courtroom Act Ruins Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann - by John O'Sullivan / Principia Scientific 04JUL17.
- Michael Mann’s 2008 Reconstruction - by Andy May / WUWT 11JAN21.

• CO2 - I like fish.  Well having them, not so much eating them.  I once had an established green aquarium supporting multiple aquatic plant species with an eye toward trying to make it as self-sustaining as possible.  As part of that, I researched and later extensively took advantage of the benefits of CO2 introduction.  I ended up using yeast and sugar making something that smelled like Sambuca as a byproduct and giving off a ton of CO2 pressure released into the water.  What one learns if one digs into this is that increasing CO2 PPM directly and profoundly promotes plant survival and growth.  Before the start of Al's graph in the movie, way back during the times when plants were evolving to their present configurations, CO2 was at hugely, wildly higher levels than it is now.  They love CO2.  And the more they're thriving, the more they do their magic of making us something to munch on, something to breathe, and materials to make the shelters we live in.  Plants filter the water and regulate the chemistry of their environments to an astonishing degree.  If there is one thing humans need in abundance more than any other thing, it is plants.  CO2 is good for plants.  Plants are good for humans.  So, Al, sweetie, if you want me to hate CO2, you're going to have to do some pretty ironclad convincing here.
  
  Throughout history and also in the prehistory extrapolated from ice cores and tree rings and such, when it's warmer, humans thrive, when it gets colder populations die off.  That correlation is as strong or stronger than the CO2 Temperature correlation seen in the current era.  Global warming is happening a whole bunch as we can see in Al's hockey stick graph.  Hooray.  We shall thrive then right?  Al says no.  And then provides a list of secondary effects that will besiege humanity,  It'll cause sea levels to rise a bunch and cause drought and deserts says Al.  It'll make storms worse and cause extreme events to become more extreme.  Quite the parade of hits.  Well ok, let's look at each of these a bit closer.
   
• Arctic Sea Ice & The Plight Of The Polar Bears! - It turns out Arctic Sea Ice has remained stable through the last decade and has convincingly thwarted the dire predictions.
  
  - Arctic Sea Ice Surprise Global Warming Experts By Remaining Stable This Decade - by P. Gosselin / No Tricks Zone 28JUN19.
  - Polar Vortex Grows Arctic Sea Ice to 10-Year High . . . - by Jonathan Belles / Weather Channel 13FEB20.
  - Confronting Arctic troposphere, clouds, and surface energy budget representations in regional climate models with observations - by Joseph Sedlar et al. / JGR Atmospheres 12MAR20.
  - “Where’s the sea ice?” Right where it’s been for most of the Holocene - by David Middleton / Watt's Up With That 30OCT20.

  The emotional heartstring puller of adorable, helpless polar bears being in an extinction spiral due to loss of Arctic sea ice has been popular activist fodder.  For decades they have clamored about this dire problem, predicting the complete end of multi-year ice (ice not completely melting in the summer), thus killing off all the polar bears, who we are to assume can't survive without sea ice year 'round.  Yet polar bears have survived and perhaps even thrived during periods in the more distant past when sea ice actually did completely melt in the summer months.
  
  - Polarbear Science - THE Polar Bear expert, Susan Crockford weighs in with a website.
  - Polar Bears In Peril - by WWF Canada 07JAN08.  Example of the hysterical claims, this one delivered by the once dreamy fake doctor actor, Noah Wyle.
  - Global Warming: False Alarm Over Polar Bears Exposed Again - by William F. Jasper / New American 05JAN15.
  - Polar Bear Scare Unmasked: The Saga of a Toppled Global Warming Icon - by GWPF (YT) 27FEB17.
  - Susan Crockford - The Death of a Climate Icon - by GWPF (YT) 31AUG17.
  - The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened - by Susan Crockford / Polar Bear Science 19MAR19.

  This brings us to the additional shenanigans.  The sea ice trend itself, upon which the polar bear scare is based, is bogus.  This New York Times article: We Charted Arctic Sea Ice for Nearly Every Day Since 1979. You’ll See a Trend. - by Nadja Popovich, Henry Fountain and Adam Pearce / New York Times 22SEP17, nicely demonstrates one of the primary methods for producing graphs from genuine data to support a fraudulent implication.  They do this by cherry picking a start date of 1979, and then showing the trend for this truncated data set instead of including earlier data showing that prior to 1979 sea ice extent was vastly lower before it achieved this century's peak in 1979. New York Times : All The Fake Arctic News Unfit To Print - by Tony Heller (YT) 24SEP17.

  Example Faux Anomaly Trend From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2015*

  Earlier Data From 1990 IPCC Report p.224 graph (a)*

  
  From Tony Heller's combined data*
   

• Antarctica & Southern Ocean Sea Ice - Turns out, the largest glacier of them all is expanding.  Ice shelves calving into the Southern Ocean commonly used as evidence global warming is making the icecaps melt could instead have major global cooling effects.  One mechanism for this is the effect of fresh water introduction in the Southern Ocean which will increase winter iceflows moving to higher latitudes.  In the case of a massive ice shelf breakaway, the resulting reflectivity added to albedo at latitudes which get more sunlight could have major effects.  Some have suggested this could be the primary feedback that causes ice ages.
  
  - Why Is Antarctica's Sea Ice Growing While the Arctic Melts? Scientists Have an Answer - by Bob Berwyn / Insideclimate News 31MAY16.
  - Antarctic sea ice is key to triggering ice ages, study finds - by UChicago / Loise Lerner 28OCT19.
  - Iceberg the size of Delaware threatens penguins and seals on remote island - by Tamar Lapin / NY Post 04NOV20.
  - ICESat‐2 melt depth retrievals: application to surface melt on Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica - by Helen Amanda Fricker et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 11DEC20. Underestimation of East Antarctica's Amery Ice Shelf by 30%-70%.
  - Sea ice variability and trends in the Western Indian Ocean Sector of Antarctica during the past two centuries and its response to climatic modes - by Tariq Ejaz et al. / AGU 21NOV21.  Hello? There is more ice growth underway than ever before in the record?  Talk about burying a headline.  Wow!  . . . "increase of 2.59 ± 0.86% decade-1 during 1994–2014 CE, which is unprecedented over the last two centuries."
   
• Greenland's Goin' Green While Iceland's Still On Ice - If the precious Greenland ice sheet goes on melting at this extraordinary rate, within 12,500 years HALF of it will be gone.  Meanwhile, Iceland is nearly the coldest it has been in the last 8000 years.
  
  - Greenland Endures by Willis Eschenbach / WUWT 03AUG19.
  - Delingpole: Greenland Ice Melt Shock - The Terrifying Truth - by James Delingpole / Breitbart 04AUG19.
  - Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s - by Kenneth Richard / No Tricks Zone 14DEC20.
   
• Glaciers In Retreat - Most glaciers measured are retreating overall.  True.  Well it was true, maybe not so much lately, there is much debate.  There is no definitive data set accurately tracking year-round ice globally.  This science remains largely anecdotal.  But it does appear most glaciers overall have been in retreat perhaps for the past 250 years.  These are tracked by the World Glacier Mass Balance.  So this definitely means more warming is happening overall and melting our treasured glaciers? Can you spot the fallacy?  Hint: There are new glaciers forming all the time where new cold weather patterns become prevalent enough to keep snow from melting year to year.  These newby glaciers (Ice Age Now List) are not tracked along with the established ones in overall retreat.  One might just as easily believe that humans are dwindling toward extinction if we only tracked the numbers of already existing ones.
  
  - Glacier National Park Quietly Removes Its ‘Gone by 2020’ Signs - by Roger Roots / WUWT 30MAY19.
   
• Sea Level Rise - The rising oceans got their most recent moment in the global warming sun via a 2017 Washington Post article based on a deeply flawed study.  However, a look at tidal gauges more comprehensively to get a global picture and looking at the more long term data, it's quite obvious that, indeed, global sea level rise has been happening steadily for hundreds of years ever since we emerged from the last ice age, long before any model suggests human CO2 emissions were to blame.
  
  - Rise Of Sea Levels Is The Greatest Lie Ever Told - by Christopher Booker / The Telegraph 28MAR09.
  - Paris Climate Challenge 2015 - The Sea Level Fraud - by 1000frolly PhD (YT) 19DEC15.
  - Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990 - by Chris Mooney / Washington Post 22MAR17.
  - Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise - by Sönke Dangendorf et al. / PNAS 06JUN17.  Shows flaws in the previous article's supporting research.
  - Fake News About Sea Level Rise - by Tony Heller (YT) 17JUN17.
  - NASA confirms – Sea levels FALLING across the planet - by Robert Felix / Ice Age Now 12OCT17.
  - Is the IPCC Wrong about Sea Level Rise? - by Earl J. Ritchie / Forbes 15JUN18.
  - Climatologist Judith Curry Counters Climate Disaster Predictions With Sea Level Report - by Valerie Richardson / Washington Times 27DEC18.
  - Sea Level Rise Whiplash - by Judith Curry 08FEB19.
  - Have You Heard The Good News About Sea Level Rise? - by Erik Kobayashi-Solomon / Forbes 25OCT19.
  - Apocalyptic Sea-Level Rise - Just a Thing of the Past? - by Gregory J. Rummo / WUWT 09AUG19.
  - Investigating the Acceleration of Regional Sea‐level Rise During the Satellite Altimeter Era - by Benjamin D. Hamlington et al. / NASA Geophysical Research Letters 13FEB20.
  - New Study: Sea Level Rise Rates The Same Since 1958 As They Were For All Of 1900-2018 - by Kenneth Richard / WUWT 11JAN21.

       It will be sad if some more cities become submerged, but this has been happening throughout recorded history and before it.  People do love living near the coasts, which is why so many significant ancient settlements are submerged and stories like Atlantis and Dwarka are ubiquitous.  But what makes humans survivors is our ability to migrate.  It's the one thing we do better than any other land-bound creature on the planet.  We're endurance runners.  We are travelers.  We spawn colonies and then adapt the environment to suit our needs.
  
       In any case, having been a sailor, I've got a healthy respect for what the sea can do.  If you live near a coastline, sooner or later Poseidon is going to come a-callin'.  Whether it's a tsunami. or a hurricane or your sub-duction plate correcting, you are going to be getting wet eventually, and you'd better be prepared to get to higher ground when needed . . . or be on a boat. (Bill Gates reportedly orders $644M hydrogen-powered superyacht with gym, helipad, infinity pool - by Lee Brown / NY Post 10FEB20.)

• Hurricanes And Cyclones And Storms Oh My! - Worse storms sounds pretty scary.  But there is no evidence that storms are actually worsening along with Al's hockey stick.  Hurricanes, in particular generate floods of global warming hysteria every time there's a landfall.

  
  
  
  
  

       So the reality?  There has never been a time when extreme weather events were not happening at localities throughout the world with their own sometimes cyclical comings and goings, but lacking any correlation to overall global temperatures.  (From Whatsupwiththat Extreme Weather Reference Page.)*
  
       But Al is nothing if not persistent.  Al Gore's Claim About Hurricane Florence Doused By Scientists - by Valerie Richardson / Washington Times 16SEP18.
   

• Drought, Deserts and Wildfires! - Back in that Oceanography class there was a fundamental process that had seemed pretty well established.  Temperature rise causes more evaporation of water and what goes up must come down.  In fact, while it's up there, doesn't it form clouds that reflect sunlight back into space cooling things off?  A pretty huge negative feedback against global warming now that I think about it.  Hmm.  Anyway back to deserts . . .
  
      If a warmer Earth evaporates more water from the oceans which then has to rain somewhere, how can droughts, deserts and wildfires be considered a part of CO2 driven global warming?  Some theories focus on Hadley cells.  Hadley cells are the prevailing rise of warm air in the tropics to fall back again in the subtropics.  The idea is that because of CO2 driven global warming, tropical air rise is stronger, the clouds rise higher and more often rain out while still in the tropics before moving the moisture to the subtropics.  Theories about evapotranspiration from plants play a part also in terms of how agricultural practices and plant growth impacts water tables.  More recent studies call into question many assumptions being made about how these mechanisms interact, in particular how plants directly effect cloud cover and localized water retention.  Plants are better able to store and manage their water with more CO2 in the air as well, providing a feedback against drought severity.  In addition, electrical conditions have been shown to have a major effect on heavy rainfall events in the tropics as well.
  
  - Huge parts of world are drying up: Land 'evapotranspiration' taking unexpected turn - by Oregon State University / Science Daily 11OCT10.
  - Substantial Reductions in Cloud Cover and Moisture Transport by Dynamic Plant Responses - by Martin Sikma et al / AGU100 31JAN19.
  - Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity - by Abigail L. S. Swann et al. / PNAS 06SEP16.
  - Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe - by Maurice F. Huguenin et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 17APR20.  Global warming isn't needed to explain the natural variations in Europe's weather patterns.
  - Electrical Route to Realising Intensity Simulation of Heavy Rain Events in Tropics - by Dipjyoti Mudiar et al. / India 19APR20.
  - Study Pinpoints Process That Eases Drying in Drylands - by Holly Evarts / Columbia Engineering 04JAN21.
  
       Along with these factors, increase in weather pattern variation is having the opposite effect of drought in many of the world's deserts, including some in subtropic regions.  More variation in weather patterns + more CO2 = desert blooms:
  
  - Climate Change Turned One of the World’s Driest Places Into a Pink Wonderland - by Nicole Mormann / Take Part 30OCT15.
  - The World's Driest Desert Blooms With Hundreds Of Flowers After Rare Rain - by Jaime Feldman / Huffpo 05SEP17.
  - The “super bloom” in California’s desert after the drought - by Sarah Frostenson / Vox 13APR17.
  - Climate Change: The Saudi Arabian desert gets blooms 11/13/18 - by WORLDETHQ (YT) 13NOV18.
  - Joshua trees are blooming early in the desert. It's not a good thing - you can thank climate change - by James W. Cornett / Desert Magazine 05FEB19.
  - California's second 'super bloom' in two years transformed a desert into a wildflower wonderland - by AP 12MAR19.

      Unfortunately, when additional water hits a normally dry region, this often contributes to the wildfires later in the season when all that extra brush dries into kindling.  Fire danger is certainly worsened during dry conditions, but it is wet early springs and summers that generate the fuel for the worst wildfire seasons in many regions.  Wet California winter is a boon for skiers and water supply. But it brings a threat: Wildfires - by Scott Wilson / Washington Post 17JUN19.
  
      In places like Australia, with common multi-year droughts partially driven by El Niño punctuated by occasional seasons of major rainfall, the burning brush in these wildfires is often fueled by extra rainfall coming seasons or even years earlier.  Critical seasonal prescribed burning programs have been halted by well meaning but ill advised climate activists.  In other cases, proscribed burning and other management and prevention programs are neglected due to funding cuts or other reasons.  The resulting failure to manage proper firebreaks contributed tremendously to the devastation of the 2009 (Black Saturday) and 2020 fires in Australia and the US Northwest.  These administrative failures have killed people.  Yet an utterly ridiculous climate change blame game has been choking the mainstream narrative in the stories surrounding these tragedies. 
  
  - Burning off 'could have prevented Black Saturday' - by Rafael Epstein / AM 20APR09.
  - Australia floods: La Niña to blame - by Damian Carrington / The Guardian 11JAN11.
  - Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010 - by Harry H. Hendon et al. / Springer 22FEB13.
  - High chance of El Niño in Australia, worsening heat, bushfires and drought - by The Guardian 09OCT18.
  - The Truth About the Australian Bushfires - Paul Joseph Watson / Summit News (YT) 12JAN20.
  - Oregon’s historic wildfires: unusual but not unprecedented - Ted Sickinger / The Oregonian 12SEP20.
  - UW Researchers Find Wildfire Smoke is More Cooling on Climate Than Computer Models Assume - by University Of Wyoming 12JAN21.
  
   

• Climate Refugees - Also referred to as environmental migration, this is defined generally as populations who need to move elsewhere due to problems with their local climate.  A famous example is the 1930's dust bowl in the US ranging from Texas to Nebraska.  Huge numbers of people trekked west to escape the horrible drought.  Later studies have suggested agricultural practices played a major role in the devastation.  More recently the concept of regional climate migration has been applied to global warming concepts.  There is no widely accepted scientific proof to support a claim that any regional drought or famine or flooding was caused specifically by a global rise in temperature or CO2.  Yet an avalanche of policy papers have been produced calling for action on Carbon tied nebulously to solving refugee problems.
  
      Regional climate claims in war torn regions are highly suspect.  Unfortunately, the primary phenomenon being fled in many places is a rain of bombs rather than problems related to that kinder, wetter sort of rain.  Arguably bombs landing on one's house are a more immediate problem likely to generate waves of refugees than wimpy rainy seasons or declining water tables.  Either way, while there is plenty of evidence strife can erupt from extended droughts and from colder climates with shorter growing seasons resulting in famines, the key missing link is to global climate.
  
      Another common refugee motivator is of course hunger and starvation.  It is important to remember that waves of starvation refugees usually happen when aid programs dry up or fail to materialize for a region suffering shortages rather than due to recent regional climate fluctuations.  An ugly aspect of this is that it is often the aid programs themselves that cause the dependency that generates problems when aid is curtailed.  While global food aid programs are a very kind and well meaning initiative, and while acknowledging these programs are life-saving for immediate catastrophic response programs, for longer term food assistance, these programs kill any chance local agriculture will develop to sustain the population.  Local farms can't compete with free and go under.  For this reason, programs for agriculture development in the hungry region are a better way to have a lasting impact.  "If you give a man a fish he is hungry again in an hour. If you teach him to catch a fish you do him a good turn." - Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie.
  
      For areas truly afflicted by major local climate shifts, migration may be the only option.  This has been happening throughout history and long before it.  Changing patterns have been making different parts of the firmament amenable to human settlement since there have been humans.  It's possible the anomaly in recent times is that humans are now inhabiting any place it is possible to inhabit, and even some places like Las Vegas where strictly speaking . . . it isn't possible (without stealing water from my garden far to the North).
  
      The point being, with humans covering the globe, any time patterns change, humans are going to be in the path of the problem and have to displace or adapt.  With nearly all humans plugged into their friendly neighborhood global communications network, each time it happens, everyone knows.  This is a very good thing in a sense that the rest of humanity can try to help out.  Back when the Aztecs or Mayans needed to get rolling, they probably could have used a hand.  Our global proliferation and awareness skews perception toward thinking our world is being worse to us.  Our pre-programmed spiritual mythos of self blame glitches into hyperdrive when folks think we've enraged the gods.  Time to find a witch to burn, or a culture to blame . . .  At least nobody is sacrificing virgins to a volcano to appease the angry climate change gods . . . yet . . . that we know of . . . .  ok understood, some involuntary Epstein/Nygard Islanders may metaphorically beg to differ . . .
  
  - Spiegel: Even Warmist Scientists Dismiss Climate Change As Cause Of Syrian Conflict, Refugee Crisis - by P Gosselin / No Tricks Zone 25FEB16.
  - Europe’s Colossal Refugee Shame …Leaders Let 15,000 Perish At Sea, Freeze To Death, Since 2009 - by P Gosselin / No Tricks Zone 31JAN17.
  - Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited - by Jan Selby et al. / Political Geography 01SEP17.
  - Study finds that global warming exacerbates refugee crises - by John Abraham / The Guardian 15JAN18.
  - The Refugees The World Barely Pays Attention To - by Tim McDonnell / NPR 20JUN18.
  - Time Magazine: Illegal Immigrants are Climate Refugees - by Eric Worrall / WUWT 22FEB19.
  - Caught in lie: Data destroys claim about Bangladeshi climate migrants - by Craig Rucker / CFACT 12JUL19.
  - Unpacking Sanders’ ‘Climate Refugee’ Statistic - by Jessica McDonald / FactCheck 26NOV19.
  - Climate Change and Social Unrest: A 6,000‐Year Chronicle From the Eastern Mediterranean - by David Kaniewski et al. / Geophysical Research Letters 28MAR20.  It's the cold, not the heat.

The Path Back To Science

     A monumental effort is being undertaken to try to decrease human CO2 emissions. This endeavor is incapable of having any significant affect on CO2 levels or climate, but it will provide a pleasant new stream of revenue to the appointed governance institutions.

- Carbon Credits Likely Worthless in Reducing Emissions - by Nicholas Kusnetz / Inside Climate News 19APR17.
- China’s Emissions: More Than U.S. Plus Europe, and Still Rising - by Keith Bradsher and Lisa Friedman / New York Times 25JAN18.
- The countries that pushed carbon emissions to record levels - by Andrew Freedman / Axios 06DEC18.
- Climate Change Hoax Collapses As New Science Finds Human Activity Has Virtually Zero Impact On Global Temperatures - by Mike Adams / Natural News 12JUL19.
- Dozens of Scientists Reveal Most of the Planet is COLDER TODAY Than Most of Past 8000 Years - by P. Gosselin / HAF 16JAN21.

    Carbon penalization schemes are essentially a tax to exist, being levied upon humanity for doing anything that produces CO2 - which includes a whole lot of things humans like to do, such as breathing.  When you hear people spit out the word carbon like it's a curse, perhaps it might bear remembering that you are a carbon based life form and so is almost everything else considered a living thing.

     Team global warming is a nihilistic cult.  But unlike the Sex Pistols who thought the world would be better off without us because we're assholes (a point of view with much more supporting evidence), the global warming nihilism cult is using mass hysteria founded on a structure of lies and misinformation to lead their dupes down a righteous path of doom.  When you believe impossible things, you demonstrate that you are bound by the illusion.  You are willing and able to depart from reality for the cause.  When this form of insanity can be controlled, directed and harnessed, it becomes power.  The kind of power which, until science came along, dominated the course of human civilization.

     Both sides engage in discourse that is often in every way unscientific.  Bill, the "science" guy, says, "Hurricane Sandy is because of climate change!".  But what does that even mean?  Ignorant skeptics claim every blizzard or snow storm is disproof of global warming.  Ugh!  Every hurricane, or tornado, or flood or blizzard is only one miniscule event within a vast cadre of systems that make up the global weather scene.  Miniscule both in scope (as in % of the earth being talked about as effected at any given time) and time (the global trend defined by "climate change" takes decades to happen whereas storms take days to a few weeks).

     Saying a hurricane is because of climate change or global warming is like saying the dandelion patch in my yard is caused by dandelions succeeding as a species because they are trending toward growing shorter stalks to avoid lawn mower blades.  Sure, it might be logical, and there might even be some truth to this trend statistically for the species, but as the causation statement for my weed patch, it's ludicrously wrong  The dandelion patch is much more directly caused by having a neighbor upwind who isn't taking care of their yard.  Which is caused by them being old and not caring about their yard anymore.  Which is caused by . . . um, the aging process?  Well she moved there after her daughter and husband moved to a new job in Utah and since the elderly woman's house was being taken by the city for the Light Rail project it was logical for her to move into her daughter's house upwind.  All of these conditions are more directly responsible for the spawning of my dandelions than an overall tendency of the species to favor lawnmower-proof height limitations.  When you think about how many potential contributing factors helped put those dandelions in my yard, you quickly realize the problem.  A near infinite number of happenstances that could never be managed as interacting variables play into it.  Just like the regional weather events that the pundits sensationally plug into overall climate theories.

     Models for weather prediction can look upwind to see what is coming.  Given enough accurate information, they can produce an increasingly accurate picture of what is likely to happen as the target time approaches.  But once you go upstream more than a few weeks (or in the dandelion parable - beyond where I determine which neighbor has upwind dandelions spawning my patches) the variables become impossibly, immeasurably vast.  The potential inputs become too varied and with far too much random scatter to be identified, tracked, or used to make accurate predictions.  On your local news channel, despite the global warming medicine often mixed into your porridge by your typical meteorologist, climate change predictions do not factor into weather prediction models.  The low level hum of a hypothetical 1 or 2 degrees of global warming this year is irrelevant at regional weather scales.  Ironically, it is the climate models which may have something to learn from local forecast models that get it right.  Most weather forecasting models interpolate predictions from similar historical patterns using an increasing variety of more accurate and granular data sets.  New kinds of measurements are constantly being tried to see how they can be used to make better predictions.  What's nice about this science is that it provides a speedy turnaround for evaluating each new model's performance.  Weather prediction models should keep getting better in this way if they are permitted to be.  Unfortunately, US weather modeling seems particularly behind at the moment with the GFS model ranked 3rd or 4th behind Europe Center, the UK MET Office and often tied with Canada's.  (The Future of U.S. Weather Prediction Will Be Decided During the Next Month - by Cliff Mass / Weather Blog 26JAN20).  Missing mechanisms in climate models may derive inspiration from discoveries in meteorology making weather forecasting a fascinating bellwether to monitor for hints about where the future of climate science is headed.

     Climate models, including the latest CMIP6 which will take us through the next year of IPCC predictions, are trying to do long range predictions and universally getting it wrong.  The RCP8.5 pathway's use of unlikely assumptions to produce dire headlines is particularly skewed.  There are critical global assumptions being made that have large margins of error.  The way CO2 behaves as a greenhouse gas and the fundamental behaviors of the most dynamic greenhouse gas, water vapor, are very far from anything resembling settled science.  The counteracting influence presented by aerosol cooling appears to be under-considered as well.  Assumptions about the amount of energy that CO2 sequesters and how this fits into the massive array of chemical interactions involving carbon and oxygen are speculation.  We are still at a stage where new interactions are being discovered constantly.   The profound effects of the sun's cycles and electromagnetic interactions with earth and the effects we are discovering taking place within the oceans and underground are areas where groundbreaking studies are emerging rapidly.  The investigation into how global climate works is still in its infancy.  We are nowhere near a place where reliably predictive modeling can be done because we don't yet know all of the parts of the model that need to be included.

More Model Makeover Opportunities

• Climate Alarmists Have Been Wrong About Virtually Everything - by Alex Newman / New American 02JUN17.
• Climate Models Underestimate Cooling Effect Of Daily Cloud Cycle - by Morgan Kelly / Princeton Environmental Institute 09JAN18.
• We Need To Rethink Everything We Know About Global Warming - by Hebrew U. / Science Daily 22JAN19.
• You Don’t Need A Science Degree To Know That Global Warming ‘Science’ Is Fake - by Francis Menton / Principia Scientific 19JUL19
• Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections - by Patrick Frank / Frontiers in Earth Science 06SEP19
• High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate - by Jiang Zhu et al. / Nature 30APR20.
• Intrinsic oceanic decadal variability of upper-ocean heat content - by Navid C. Constantinou and Andrew McC. Hogg 15DEC20.
• A 13‐year Trajectory‐Based Analysis of Convection‐Driven Changes in Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere Composition over the United States - by Emily N. Tinney et al. / JGR Atmospheres 21DEC20.
• Climate Science Destroyed In 8 Minutes (YT) - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers 05MAY21.   Debunk debunking: CLIMATE FRAUDS | Experts on the Hook - by Ben Davidson / Suspicious Observers 28MAY21.
• Methane cools even as it heats - by Jules Bernstein / UC Riverside 27MAR23.
• Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought - by Douglas Fox / Science News 18APR23.

    Another key element needed for model improvements involves using better climate proxy reconstruction data.  Climate records are used to inform climate modeling inputs and to test model run output.  The hope is that if we are able to have less garbage included with the source data for model projections, the projections will in turn, become less like garbage themselves.  In an encouraging development, efforts to assemble and organize climate proxy data sets for better analysis, comparison and cleanup are finally being shared with the public. (NOAA Study Page | NOAA Climate Reconstruction | A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records - by Darrell Kaufman et al. / Nature 14APR20 | A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records | Nature’s archives: piecing together 12,000 years of Earth’s climate story - by Alison Stevens / Climate.gov 15APR20)

    One aspect of modeling we would be remiss if we did not touch upon is the crossover between the evolution of gaming physics engines and corresponding formulas developing to explain physical mechanics.  It turns out to be hard to fake fire, water, clouds, lighting etc.  As demand for more and more realism drives the market, so is driven the science of figuring out what is happening at the level of physics well enough to look and sound real.  Vanilla Minecraft is to Star Citizen as Star Citizen is to . . .   If Moore's law is right . . .   You see where I'm going with this.  Billions of dollars and near infinite passion is being poured into developing these ever improving simulations.  Some see gamers and gaming as a colossal waste of time and talent.  I shall not attempt to argue against this very valid point of view.  I am saying though, keep watching how these physics game engines drive physics modeling in science.  I want to be the first on my block to get my Lumberyard weather forecasting model.  Seriously though, there are mechanisms and discoveries happening as these physics engines develop which have begun to fuse these different "disciplines" of gaming and physics in astonishing ways.  Gaming for science!

   If there can be such a thing anymore as science after the current populist uprising, that is.  This is probably the most fundamental takeaway, from this decades-long slow motion train wreck, perhaps we can hope for a science renaissance if enough people can be convinced this can be the only way out of having the sneakiest monkey rule.

Allan Savory: “We are going to kill ourselves because of stupidity” 01JUN21.

Freeman Dyson: “On the Global Warming Hysteria” 06APR15.

No Fear
(ok well, maybe a little fear . . .)

    A well reasoned discussion about the badness of CO2 is offered in the legendary Freeman Dyson interview above.  We know that CO2 increase and the resulting greening of the planet has tremendous direct benefits for humanity in terms of food and oxygen production via increased plant biomass, which, incidentally is how CO2 was sequestered into coal and oil in the first place.  Plants have even been shown to have an amazing impact on cumulous cloud cover and brightness.  This has the effect of regulating the Earth's heat budget using Earth's albedo in a negative feedback upon global heating when CO2 increase promotes overall plant abundance.

    That established planted aquarium of mine is a useful environmental model in its own right.  A planted aquarium self-regulates its own chemistry in terms of both the acidity (carbon compounds) and nitrogen states very effectively.  The way that plants grow, die off, and decay seems to intrinsically find a balance, helping to maintain the conditions needed for survival.  Perhaps a fundamental requirement for life to establish itself in any environment beyond a few generations, is that it must collectively sustain that environment.  Interactions such as food chains, stability inducing microbial emergence and die off, and the enumerable other balancing activities taking place between each species and its surroundings are found throughout all sustained ecologies.

    Life has been doing this for a very long time.  Through ice ages, and pole shifts, through asteroid impacts and caldera eruptions.  Are some forms of life decimated in these events?  Certainly.  But does life react?  Does it re-establish itself and engineer new balances regardless of the conditions thrown at it?  Clearly life does this exceptionally well. There is no other way established ecosystems could keep re-emerging.  Life will keep on doing this regardless of mankind's delusions of control.  That said, industrial sized rain dances in the form of large scale geoengineering climate control schemes may well be throwing things out of the current balance.

- Geoengineering - Wiki
- What In The World Are They Spraying - by Michael J. Murphy / Truth Media Prdoctions 01JAN12.
- This Bill Gates-funded chemical cloud could help stop global warming - by Katie Schoolov / CNBC 07SEP19.  Mr. Gates' driving goal is to depopulate the world by any means necessary.  (Bill Gates - Innovating To Zero by Bill Gates / TED 01FEB10)  His aversion to basic freedom and liberty, his maniacal globalist agenda, and his attempt to out-Orwell Orwell in his effort to seek out and destroy any resistance proudly places him in the highest echelons of super-villainry.  If there is a hell, Bill is going to burn in a very special level of it.  A level they reserve for child molesters and people who talk at the theater.  (Special Hell courtesy of Our Mrs. Reynolds by Shepherd Book et al. / Firefly 04OCT02)
- Congress Now Funding "Controversial" Geoengineering 'Plan B' To Spray Particles In The Sky To Cool Earth - by Matt Agorist / TheFreeThoughtProject.com 27JAN20)
- Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards - by David Keith et al. / Environmental Research Letters 20MAR20.
- A model‐based investigation of terrestrial plant carbon uptake response to four radiation modification approaches - by Lei Duan et al. / JGR Atmospheres 04APR20.
- New NUI Galway Study Helps Improve Accuracy of Future Climate Change Predictions - by NUI Galway’s Centre for Climate & Air Pollution Studies 08APR20.  Sea salt douses cloud brightening geoengineering schemes.
- China is massively expanding its weather-modification program, saying it will be able to cover half the country in artificial rain and snow by 2025 - by Bill Bostock / Business Insider 04DEC20.
- China to Expand Weather Modification Project to Cover Area the Size of India - by Frank Salvato / National File 19JAN21.
- Solar geoengineering: The case for an international non-use agreement - by Frank Biermann et al. / WIREs 17JAN22.

    Maybe these activities have the potential to cause an anthropogenic effect after all, though almost certainly not with the result intended.  It is far from certain humanity will have as comfy a place in the next ecosystem that emerges after our clumsy meddling. (Day After Tomorrow (2004), The Colony (2013), Snowpiercer (2014), Frostpunk (2018), Northernlion Frostpunk Playthrough (2020).  Perhaps a dollop humility, with a side of caution, along with a heaping helping of further study might be the wisest course.

- Claims that cannot be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless, whatever value they may have in inspiring us or in exciting our sense of wonder. - Carl Sagan and Ann Druyan / Demon-Haunted World 01FEB96.

Lairticles
---------------------
The Grendelverse || Global Warming || Vaccines & Plandemics || Sun Nova & Crust Displacement
Bad Arguments & Hatespeech || Cyborg || Glyphosate Roundup || Plasma Universe || Crack For Kids